Well cutting it close again are we? Don’t answer that I can’t hear you. This Sunday March 2nd is the Academy Awards and I bet you’re excited about it aren’t you? Well that was also rhetorical, whether or not you are tuning in or not you should at least be excited that my annual preview post tradition is continuing, at the request of millions*
*actual number of requests might differ slightly.
The delay in announcing the nominees gave me a little extra time to get prepared and when the official ballots were revealed, I had a whopping three films to see to cover all the best picture, director, actor, actress, and supporting categories. In case you were curious what those three films are I will tell you and the reason why I missed them before they were nominated. First was A Complete Unknown, which I avoided because Jesus Christ can they stop making these things already? James Mangold is a competent director who is capable of occasionally doing great work, but he also did Walk the Line which is a textbook case of how to make the most predictable and formulaic biopic. A Complete Unknown essentially tones down the “gifted genius battles personal demons” formula and instead gives us talented actors larping classic music. I had no interest in the film when it was announced, when it came out, and even less now that I have seen it. However I took my medicine and more on that later.
The next film was I’m Still Here. I have mixed feelings about Walter Salles, his films are often good but I still feel Central Station was the result of Weinstein publicity. The real reason I hadn’t seen it was because the movie didn’t appear in Chicago yet. I saw it the following Tuesday after the announcements. Like almost every film nominated for best picture it is 20 minutes too long, but what isn’t these days?
Last on the ticket was The Apprentice. Considering Sebastian Stan delivered a hell of a performance in the shamefully overlooked A Different Man, I deliberately avoided his Trump biopic. For the same reason all biopics are nauseating, I had no great desire to see an origin story of the worst person on earth. Both Stan and Jeremy Strong are quite good in their roles and ultimately that’s what these acting categories are all about. It was foolish of me to think the Academy would recognize the far more interesting film when the show has always been about feeding the public well made slop.
Well let us preview some categories shall we? As per usual I will offer my takes on who was actually the best vs. who will probably win. In the case of predictions I expect to be wrong even more than usual. This year features very few outright locks in any major category so have fun filling those ballots everybody. I will start with the two short categories since I know you didn’t watch any of them.
Best Animated Short Film
This year's nominees featured more male nudity than I would have expected going into my screening. I would like to take a moment to publicly shame AMC for not showing any of these shorts at a theater anywhere near me. The first film in our program was the Japanese Magic Candies. It was a delightful little gem about a loner boy who loves marbles and buys some marble shaped candy by mistake that allows him to talk to different people/things. This is the type of short I imagine will find the most broad appeal of the nominees so it will most likely win. Beautiful Men was about three brothers getting a hair transplant in Turkey, it was not my favorite. In the Shadow of the Cypress was from Iran but featured no dialogue. The animation style was unique and although it was an interesting watch I couldn’t really connect with it. Yuck! was a French movie that is a charming little oddity about people whose lips turn bright pink when they want to kiss. A group of kids ridicule all the yucky people and their PDA and wouldn’t you know everyone secretly wants to be smacking some lips. Wander to Wonder was a brilliant nightmare of a film that if I were voting would have gleefully selected as best animated short. It is probably too avant-garde and bizarre to appeal to most voters, but it is one of the films featuring male nudity and the only one featuring an actual non animated human. This was done with stop motion and the level of detail is incredibly impressive. Seek it out even if it winds up losing.
Best Documentary Short Film
Welcome to bummer city folks. Instruments of a Beating Heart was the most inconsequential of these and even that is full of small Japanese children being driven to tears. It sheds a tiny bit of light on Japanese society and how some of their strict school/work habits are formed very early. The Only Girl in the Orchestra is on Netflix and might be the only one of these that the casual Oscar fan might have seen. It is shot like a 60 Minutes profile, and although a decent watch is not the kind of thing that will leave a lasting impression. Which brings us to the dark stuff. Death by Numbers tells of the aftermath of the Parkland school shooting and specifically how one survivor has sort of coped with it. Very overproduced and full of occasionally awkward musical cues it is a hard film to rate. I am Ready, Warden was produced by MTV and is currently on Paramount + for those who just now remembered that streaming service exists. This was a very engaging documentary about a man in Texas on death row. He is very much guilty and it tells the story of his last minute attempts for clemency, his victim’s family, his own son, and adopted southern baptist godmother. Hell of a watch and worth your time. Last up is Incident. I won’t mince words when I say this is by a wide margin the best film in this category. Bill Morrisson directed it using nothing but city surveillance footage and body cam footage from the police on the scene. The entire film is a factual depiction of the Chicago police department shooting a black man 5 times for absolutely nothing. It is infuriating and incredible stuff. Since not all of the footage had sound there are stretches of silence, no added music, a little bit of text but this is as straightforward as you can get. Like the best work of Frederick Wiseman it just simply presents the footage. If everything in the world is terrible and only getting worse these docs definitely represent that, but perhaps none more directly or as powerfully as Incident.
Best Documentary Feature
I have not seen the aforementioned Porcelain War and I doubt I will before Sunday night. However I did see the other 4 nominees. Two deal with sexual assault, two films deal with active military conflicts, and the last is Soundtrack to a Coup D’etat. As great as No Other Land is, Soundtrack was by far my favorite documentary of the year. It is a lot of information but it hits hard and fast. To shorten it up the film deals specifically with the CIA attempts to overthrow and assassinate the newly elected leader of the Democratic Congo. More generally it digs into other political events of the era and the connection to various jazz musicians directly and indirectly involved in things. No description would do justice to the wealth of information we are presented but I could not recommend this higher and I will be actively rooting for it.
International Feature Film
Oftentimes this category is a waste of everyone’s time. The nomination process is broken and shows no signs of being fixed. Whatever nominee is nominated for best picture often wins this but we have two such films this year. I’m Still Here, which very few have a problem with and Emilia Perez, a film that feels like the democrats offering us Kamala Harris as a political candidate. I’ll get more into that film and some of the enormous hatred it has gotten. Flow is also up for best animated feature so it is a dark horse to win here. The Girl with the Needle is good but falls into the “happy to be nominated category”. The Seed of the Sacred Fig is by a wide margin the best film nominated here. How the film even got made and out to audiences is a minor miracle in itself. Shot illegally in Iran and smuggled out of the country it might seem odd that Germany’s official entry in this category would be in Farsi, but I thank ‘em for it. Sure the title might be the most pretentious thing since The Story of the Weeping Camel but don’t let that fool you. This is a masterpiece from beginning to end.
Best Animated Feature
Possibly the first time I can remember I saw every nominee in this category. If you told me like 10 years ago the Pixar film would be the weakest nominee I would have been shocked. There’s nothing wrong with Inside Out 2, it just felt like it was made by a conglomerate. The first film was a revelation and this just felt hollow. I love Wallace and Gromit and Vengeance Most Fowl was a good motherfucking time. Felt like catching up with old pals, and who doesn’t love sinister gnomes? It shouldn’t win and it almost certainly won’t but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t watch it. Unlike Inside Out 2 this absolutely felt handmade and personal. Wild Robot was very formulaic and bombastic in a way Pixar films tend to be. I understand people loving it, but it just hit too many familiar beats to really resonate with me. Flow is a delightful way to spend 90 minutes and with zero dialogue definitely hits that good background noise button. I liked this more than most nominees but it didn’t blow me away in quite the way it did for other people. Memoir of a Snail was a god damn masterpiece. At first I feared we were treading into misery porn territory (and to be fair we kind of did), but it won me over. Claymation will always hold a special place in my heart but holy shit this movie wrecked me. My easy choice for best animated feature, but if I were a betting man Wild Robot is going to take it.
Now for the categories you came for:
Best Supporting Actor
Adam Pearson should be running away with this award, but alas the man didn’t even get a nomination. Anyway my money is on Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain (even though he was not supporting but the co-lead). Everybody loved Yura Borisov in Anora and Guy Pearce is a performance you can really set your watch to in The Brutalist. I discussed Jeremy Strong earlier and like his other Succession co-star he would be a solid choice for this. As much as I generally like Edward Norton in things, I can not muster any enthusiasm for his performance as Pete Seeger.
Best Supporting Actress
Speaking of A Complete Unknown I did really like Monica Barbaro. I was more impressed with her singing than acting but hey she was great in that film and an easy high point. Why the fuck is Ariana Grande nominated for an Oscar? This is not a rhetorical question, someone explain it to me. Felicity Jones was great in The Brutalist but only shows up in the second half when most Oscar voters already fell asleep or shut the film off. Zoe Saldana was absolutely the lead in Emilia Perez and the main character we follow throughout the entire film, but sure give her a supporting nomination. Isabella Rossellini is everyone’s weird artsy eccentric auntie and I would love nothing more than her to win an Oscar. Her mother won three and the fact that this is her first nomination is insanity. Give her the award and her roses and let’s get on with our day.
Best Actor
When I saw The Brutalist in 70mm (humble brag) I was convinced Adrian Brody was winning his second Oscar. The man has made some garbage in the 22 years since his last Oscar win but damn if he isn’t always fully committed. After the whole AI helped him pronounce Hungarian words controversy I’m not sure he is the lock that he was. For what it’s worth he absolutely deserves another Oscar for this, but AI is a legit fear in Hollywood. I talked about Sebastian Stan, and fucker is good as Hitler 2.0. Wish he was nominated for A Different Man but this is Dennis Hopper being nominated for Hoosiers over Blue Velvet and Leonardo DiCaprio up for Blood Diamond over The Departed all over again. Timothee Chalamet is Bob Dylan and yeah he commits to the bit but whatever. Coleman Domingo is great in Sing Sing and this is 10x the film Rustin was so if he’s gonna win an Oscar this is absolutely the better film, but A24 seemed to completely forget about this film almost immediately. Which leaves Ralph Fiennes, perhaps he gets his Al Pacino Scent of a Woman Oscar for Conclave. I mean he’s good, but he’s ALWAYS good, that’s his thing that he does. Some voters hilariously assumed he already won an Oscar but alas he has not. Like Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour this could be a fine chance to finally take home the trophy for a very safe but characteristically good performance. My ballot still has Brody as the actor to beat, but Fiennes would not be a shock.
Best Actress
Demi vs. Mikey. This is the battle we sorta predicted. Sure some people clamored for a showdown between Demi and Pamela Anderson in an Oscar race that would have made anyone’s brains explode in 1996. Can you imagine after Barb Wire and Striptease came out if both those lead actresses would be battling it out for an Oscar 28 years later? Alas Pamela was shut out, to be fair the film was mid, her performance was great. She could have gotten the Jessica Chastain treatment but the actress category was too strong. Cynthia Erivo was also nominated for Wicked, a film I’m sure you saw. Fernanda Torres actually won a Golden Globe I believe for I’m Still Here so don’t rule her out. Then there’s little Karla Sofia Gascon. Yup she is nominated for best actress because the Academy clearly did not give into overwhelming backlash and outright hatred for her as a human or Emilia Perez as a film. I’m not saying her performance is bad, but giving her a nomination over Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) or Anderson just feels like missing a wide open layup. Shit even Nicole Kidman in Babygirl deserved a nomination more. As feel good as Demi winning would be, I have to go with Mikey on this one, but would be happy either way.
Best Director
Well congratulations to Jacques Audiard for being nominated this year. James Mangold is also nominated, he has been nominated in the past (I think) but yeah that isn’t bringing home the gold. Coralie Fargeat would be front-runner in a perfect world but man do I not like her chances here. That leaves Brady Corbet and Sean Baker as the two men left standing. As impressive a film as The Brutalist is, my heart is clearly with Baker on this. Not only has the man directed his ass off for nearly two decades, but he dedicated his film to Jess Franco and Soledad Miranda. How the fuck am I not going to root for him after that?
Best Picture
Anora - I won’t mince words, this was my favorite American film of the year. Upon reflection I put Bertrand Bonnello’s The Beast at the top spot for the year but that isn’t nominated for shit because the Academy doesn’t care about good movies. That leaves Baker’s magnum opus as my de-facto favorite of the year. When the movie came out I thought “I wonder if Mikey is naked in this” and the first shot of the movie answers that question with a yes. Sean Baker is a filmmaker for the people who understands exploitation cinema but also how to make a compelling and gripping narrative. Anora was a slice of perfection that I will cherish until my dying day. Top notch stuff, give it every award ever.
The Brutalist - Before this came out I would have given it front-runner status. Clearly A24 put all their limited resources behind this film at the expense of the substantially better I Saw the TV Glow. The first half of this movie flies by but the second half leaves a little to be desired. It definitely did not stick that landing for me and although I can still appreciate the film I need more to anoint it best picture.
A Complete Unknown - There was a moment early in the film where Monica Barbaro was singing “House of the Rising Sun” where I thought god damn maybe this movie is great. Then I saw Pete Seeger try and cut power cables with an axe and laughed out loud at how fucking stupid and formulaic this is. The film couldn’t help itself. Dylan is a tough nut to crack and Scorsese and Haynes already did. They are better filmmakers than Mangold so what could he add to the mythos? Turns out nothing. This movie was nothing more than Bob Dylan getting doors slammed in his face by multiple women while songs you recognized get performed.
Conclave - Now here’s a nice safe bit of Oscar bait. I went on at length over how much I hated Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front when that came out, and can still hear its loud obnoxious score in my head. This film seemed like it was made by a different person. Who knew choosing a pope would be so fascinating? Top notch performances from everyone and well made all around. However this is absolutely the type of award season film you will never think of again in 6 months. It is the safe and slightly boring choice but I wouldn’t rule it out because the Academy loves safe and boring. Not to spoil anything but I can imagine some Hollywood liberal thinking the ending is super subversive and voting for this makes them brave.
Dune: Part Two - This along with Wicked are the year’s token “see a popular movie you saw is nominated” entries. Dune 2 was somehow Letterboxd’s top reviewed film of 2024 which shows you how much you should never respect the opinion of people who think Denis Villenueve is the second coming of Christ. This movie did win me over in spite of my utter lack of enthusiasm. The score was slightly less obnoxious and Florence Pugh makes everything better. Other than that I barely remember this, which is the major flaw of a film released so early in the year. Better luck next sequel.
Emilia Perez - I thought I dreamt it, but there is a line in one of the songs “From penis to vagina”. This has gotten unflattering comparisons to Crash (the one everyone hates) and even a little Green Book which makes it a shoe-in to win best picture. I actually like Jacques Audiard as a filmmaker and was excited for this. I watched it the day it premiered on Netflix so without having my judgement clouded by the mountains of hate and still gave it a VERY generous 3 ½ stars. It has been review bombed so hard that when it does win best picture it would be the worst reviewed winner in history. All of this could have been avoided but again the 13 nominations felt like we had a democratic primary and all showed up to vote only for the party to say “fuck you, here’s Joe Biden”.
I’m Still Here - This film fits in perfectly with the other nominees because it is also 20 minutes too long. The movie itself is good but I see no chance in hell of this actually winning best picture. Torres has a shot and this should be front-runner for International feature, since I already discussed it there, we’ll move on.
Nickel Boys - In any just world this would be a front-runner. It is perhaps the second best American movie from last year and the fact that it got a nomination was a shock to me. The fact that Moonlight won best picture (in hilarious fashion) doesn’t mean this is impossible to win, but this is far more experimental and unapproachable to a mass audience. The respect for our intelligence and his audience has endeared me to Ross as a director, delivering on the promise he showed in Hale County several years ago. Regardless of whether this wins anything, it is absolutely worth a watch.
The Substance - Now for the favorite film of most of my friends. The Substance is a sloppy mess of classic wet goo body horror. Bright colors, enough ass shots to make Tinto Brass happy, and an allegory that bludgeons you over the head for 2+ hours. I loved every second of this film and everyone involved with it. Who knew watching Dennis Quaid eat shrimp would be the most disturbing thing in this movie? Watching Sue puke out a tit was arguably the funniest thing I’ve seen in a film this past year. I hope this wins everything and I’m still mad Margaret Qualley was snubbed. No chance on the best picture front but I will fucking riot if this doesn’t at least win best makeup.
Wicked - GAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY. Anyway, that’s my review. You probably already saw the 165 minute part one of two that was somehow a complete Broadway show at a far less time. This film clearly connected with a lot of people but it felt every single one of its 165 minutes. Every scene was stretched to an eternity and almost all of it looked like shit. For the record I didn’t hate it but I gave it the same rating as Emilia Perez so take that however you like. I can certainly see this taking home a few technical awards, but the enormous box office is enough of a reward for this.
So there you have it folks, enjoy the show, and read this after the telecast to point out what a moron I am. See you next year*
*didn't know I literally haven't blogged since the last Oscars, sorry folks.
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