Oscar Preview

 

It is Oscar day my dudes, are you excited? Probably not, but hey I’ve done a lot of these posts and somehow every year I seem to always post my preview/prediction on the day of the show. Knowing full well I will be wrong I want to keep this a little brief and speak more generally about film in 2022.

 

Before I launch into a good old fashioned “they don’t make ‘em like they used to” rant, I want to point out that a few films from 2022 were actually quite excellent. It broke my cold jaded heart that Weird, the Weird Al Yankovic Story got completely shut out. I figured they could at least throw the man a best original song Oscar instead of laughably nominating Diane Warren for yet another film no one ever heard of. I would suspect her song nominations are an elaborate money laundering scheme, but to what purpose? Anyway, I have no rooting interest in the best original song nominees, and I profoundly do not look forward to hearing Lady Gaga crocodile tear her way through “Hold My Hand”.

 

It brings me to Top Gun 2: Top Harder Daddy. The movie made a Morbillion dollars AND got significantly better reviews than the original celebration of closeted life from Tony Scott’s in 1986. I reluctantly did watch Maverick, and it proves a recent trend in film, the bar is set comically low. The past year also saw a number of mediocre to bad horror films inexplicably scoring mid-90 scores on Rotten Tomatoes. Top Gun 2: Dangerzone was a well made cheeseburger of a film. It tasted good, was immensely popular, but was still a cheeseburger you know? It was a 2 hour plus dad boner that seemed like the type of big budget slop that would have been released 6 times over the course of a summer when people still made movies not based on ips. Considering the boomers voted for Green Book for best picture, I’m not entirely rooting out TG2: Homoerotic Boogaloo for best picture.

 

Speaking of sequels, Avatar 2 came out. I seriously want to know who the fuck is seeing this? 13 years after the original that no one seemed to have any nostalgic love for this sequel dropped and instead of bombing as we all hoped, it came out to mediocre reviews and billions of dollars. I smell a scam. Anyways get ready for parts 3-6. The Dances With Smurfs saga will continue. For the record this is the only best picture nominee I haven’t watched yet, and at 3 hours and 12 minutes James Cameron can eat my ass. Again though I feel like the bar is set very low and people have clearly established that they like going to see movies, but I’m sure people wish there was better garbage to sit through, preferably something that wasn’t 3 hours plus and required glasses.

 

I suppose I should talk about two specific movies that were actually under 2 hours; Women Talking and The Banshees of Inishirin. One of these films might possibly win best picture. Last year I was comically wrong about CODA so for all I know Sarah Polley is bringing home the gold for the year’s most literally named film. I feel like the goal might have been 12 Angry Men but women, but the structure of the film was nowhere near as interesting. Sure like Top Gun I might not be the audience for Women Talking but this felt like a shoulder shrug of a movie. Banshees was quite good, but I would argue McDonagh has made better films. This might be his reconciliation for The Shape of Water beating Three Billboards 5 years ago.

 

There are two best picture nominees that I came close to despising. Both were pointless, tone deaf, and obscenely long. If a film feels its length it better be some Chantal Ackerman exercise in watching time pass and not some predictable hogwash that pretends it’s art. I hated both films for slightly different reasons and I’ll tell you the rationale. All Quiet on the Western Front (1930) was my second favorite film of all time according to my last top 100 films list. It’s been awhile since re-watching it, but I doubt it would fall far. So most people can imagine when a new version of something that great gets made it’s biggest obstacle is justifying it’s existence. I would feel similar if someone tried remaking Citizen Kane, The Godfather, or 2001. Well about 4 minutes into All Quiet (2022) I thought they might have understood the assignment. There was no score, and arguably the most iconic element of the first version was the absence of music. Then came the music, and it was bad, blaring pretentious movie trailer music. Did you know war is hell? Well that is the one-note of All Quiet on the Western Front. Instead of any balance between pre-war life, basic training, or really any scene to differentiate a single character from the random grey blobs populating everything, we’re just given grey. Even the pre-war scenes look just as muted and shitty as the rest of the film. Even the best reviews of this unnecessary film seem to top out as “Not as good as 1917”. This movie was a chore and if you don’t enjoy war movies, this is not changing your opinion.

 

The other movie that was stole several hours of my life that I won’t get back was Spaz Luhrman’s Elvis. Hollywood has established there are only three kinds of films they can market. The first is obviously super hero movies, which good or bad remain lucrative. The next are countless legacy sequels. Remakes went out of style about 15 years ago so everything is now expanded universe, prequels, or just outright sequels even if no one actually wants them (Avatar, Indiana Jones 5, Jurrassic Park 6). The last are biopics, specifically music ones. Now sometimes these films do poorly and get forgotten immediately (Respect, whatever Andre 3000’s Jimi Hendrix movie was called), but sometimes they’re hits. Bohemian Rhapsody inexplicably made super hero film money, and why wouldn’t a movie about Elvis done by an Australian director who’s directorial style can best be described as maximalist not work out?

 

Well despite hearing very little positive about Elvis, it still got several Oscar nominations and Austin Butler might very well win an Oscar. It isn’t that his performance is bad, it isn’t. I just want to stop encouraging the Academy to reward impersonations of famous people. Same can be said for Ana De Armas in Blonde, although I actually preferred that movie even if it was also not that good. Tom Hanks Col. Tom Parker was never not distracting. Seeing Hanks in a fat suit with a ridiculous Dutch accent was hard to get past, and he’s the narrator of the film. The film simultaneously felt too fast and 5 hours long. It is extra annoying because we had a perfectly brilliant musical biopic that should have been nominated in every category but instead got relegated to the Roku channel and shut out of any remotely serious award discussion. Walk Hard rightfully and brilliantly sent up musical biopics 15 years ago and should have put an end to these predictable movies. Like Walk Hard, Weird was a perfect film that we needed in 2022 but no one seemed to heed the lessons it taught. So expect more shitty films of famous people dealing with addiction issues and being sad.

 

Triangle of Sadness was a movie that also seemed right for 2022. However like the three Pinocchio adaptations we got in the last year, it does seem to be beating a dead horse. I haven’t been the biggest fan of Ruben Ostlund’s work (The Square was a chore) but this was a fun watch. The second act was particularly hilarious even if it was the well-mined territory that seems to be super popular right now (satirizing the rich). Unfortunately like too many nominees it is too damn long, and would have benefited from maybe 20 minutes of trimming. Leave all the puking and shitting though, that shit was hilarious.

 

Senor Spielbergo made a movie that wasn’t a remake or a popular existing property. The Fableman’s was quite good, the kind of movie many people have made in the past but seeing a master at work was quite enjoyable. This is pretty easily Spielbergo’s best since at least Munich, and don’t be surprised if he takes home his third directing trophy for it. Judd Hirsch reminded people he’s still alive and got himself a supporting actor nomination for approximately 5 minutes of screen time. Not bad if you can get it. Goes without saying David Lynch playing John Ford was probably my favorite scene in any movie this year.

 

There were two best picture nominees that I thought were pretty legitimately incredible. The first was Todd Field’s Tar. Field doesn’t direct often, but he made the 16 year wait worth it. Cate Blanchett has certainly earned herself another Oscar for her work here. Perhaps the fact that this film doesn’t even remotely try and dumb itself down is admirable. They distill a lot of classical music insider politics into this movie. A few scenes play out in extended long takes, and well if you know anything about this blog, I live for that shit. Her scene guest lecturing at Julliard was some of the best cinema of the decade and that already won me over. I’m not banking on this winning best picture, but it is a great watch. This is an elite film for the elites.

Last up is Everything Everywhere All At Once, the hip, fun best picture nominee. This might win, and if so people might actually be happy about it. A24 while dealing with smaller films has done a pretty solid job of marketing original ideas. This film got a good amount of hype, great reviews, and parlayed that into several nominations. This was maximalism done right, rather than an ADHD infected flashy nonsense like Elvis. This film is one of the few over 2 hour movies that earned it. After all there is a TON of shit they’re trying to cram in this movie and it’s all done incredibly well. If I were voting in this whole thing, this would probably get my vote for best picture.

 

Now a quick sidebar about some of the  other categories. This was definitely a down year for direct-to-streaming content. I don’t think a single film produced by Amazon secured a major nomination. Apple was unable to follow up last year’s CODA or even Macbeth for that matter. It’s all a sinister plot to get us to leave our comfortable couches and sit through 30 minutes of previews to see movies. Just let me watch this shit at home. I also didn’t download anything this Oscar season, legit or otherwise. So I relied almost entirely on things being added to streaming services (in-laws splurged for The Fableman’s on Christmas).

 

So animated feature, I guess Guillermo Del Torro is going to win? There were 3 god damn adaptations of Pinocchio this year, and his seemed to be the best, but you couldn’t pay me to watch Pauly Shore’s Russian adaptation. Also can Robert Zemeckis just make a normal movie with humans in it again? Marcel the Shell barely seemed like an animated film to me. I did see Turning Red which I didn’t even remember came out in 2022. Apparently the Puss in Boots sequel is good, but hot take here I don’t care about Shrek or the Shrek universe. Memes are funny but it’s just not my scene.

 

Best documentary is probably going to a movie I haven’t seen. The only nominee I’ve seen is All That Breathes which I guess could win but I wasn’t super into it. I want to see All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, but that doesn’t premiere on HBO until next week I believe.

 

International feature should go to EO or Argentina, 1985, but typically if a film gets a best picture nomination it wins the International award. I hope this isn’t the case this year, but past trends bear this out. So expect griping when All Quiet wins anything.

 

Now for the acting awards. I didn’t see The Whale. I would have watched it for free in the comfort of my own home, but it is not yet available. I don’t WANT to see The Whale, it seems depressing and bad, and frankly I’m tired of Aronofsky’s whole thing. Everybody likes Brendan Fraser and this year seems to be the battle between him and Austin Butler. I honestly hope neither wins. Give Collin Farrell the Oscar you cowards. I also haven’t watched Aftersun yet. I’m not sure I’ll ever get around to Living, but who doesn’t love Bill Nighy (well except for Shaun).

 

For the first time in many years it appears the best actress race is far more fascinating. I have never heard of To Leslie, and haven’t seen it yet. With respect to Andrea Riseborough she definitely seems to be in the happy to be nominated group. Michelle Williams is predictably good in The Fablemans, and Ana de Armas is better than the film she was in. However this seems to be between Blanchett and Michele Yeoh. Expect lots of pause-for-applause moments when people remind you that Yeoh is the first Asian woman nominated for best actress. The Oscars love patting themselves on the back for being progressive even when it’s acknowledging an embarrassing oversight. Blanchett certainly deserves it but Academy politics might demand fresh blood.

 

Supporting actor, I’ve got my money on Short Round. As much as Mad Eye Moody would be a fantastic choice, multiple nominees from the same movie can cancel each other out.

 

For supporting actress it’s gotta be Angela Bassett right? She was great, and everybody saw it. Marvel movies have never won shit for acting awards even if Michael B. Jordan should have won for the first Black Panther (save you the trouble he wasn’t nominated). Sure it might be token-ism but black women have done disproportionately well in this category in recent memory. Nice to see OG scream queen Jamie Lee Curtis with her first nomination ever, but she might suffer the same fate as Brendan Gleeson.

 

Just took a quick look at the best original score nominees, and Christ almighty is this the best we can do? I feel like every year there is a film with a distractedly bad score and it always gets nominated and sometimes even wins (looking at you 2021 Dune).

 

So enjoy the show, I will be watching, and making terrible picks.