I didn’t forget about you, although like many people I may have come close to forgetting about the Academy Awards this year. Having a year where many delayed films got released, and production resumed albeit in a “new normal” way, 2021 saw cinema get back to business as usual, sort of. Despite this being about the least pre-prepared I was in years, the later show date (tonight, oops) gave me some time to play catch up. As always I will offer some of my lukewarm takes on the nominees, possibly predict winners that will be laughably wrong, and bitch about everything. The tradition continues. I've put my predictions in bold, just to see how I do.
Let’s start the categories that will most likely be announced earliest, supporting actor and actress. Mark my words we’re about a decade away from these categories being thrown out because of gender identity, so enjoy outdated binary gender based awards while you can.
Best Supporting Actor:
Thanks to a last minute rental of Belfast (yes I legitimately watched all the nominees this year for the first time since 2005 I think), I am up to date on this category. Ciaran Hinds is definitely the type of actor who would get an awards because this category is always dominated by old actors who never won. That said I have to go with Troy Kotsur for CODA. I didn’t need that film in my life, but he was an absolute highlight of it. I feel like The Power of the Dog actors will cancel each other out, although Chicago and The Godfather Part 2 have proved that isn’t always the case. J.K. Simmons recent win in this category doesn’t mean he won’t win (think Mahershala Ali and Christoph Waltz). However the rather “meh” reaction to Aaron Sorkin’s latest monologue-a-thon puts him in the be happy for the nomination category.
Best Supporting Actress:
I have never heard of Ariana DeBose, but I’d bet a nickel she’ll win an Oscar today. She seems to have been doing well in some of the pre-Oscar award shows and well this category is extremely weak. More on this in a bit, but 2021 was not some “year of the woman”, the nominees this year have female roles as an afterthought at best. Supporting actress Oscars usually go to a co-star who far upstages their leads. DeBose does that admirably, giving easily the most memorable performance in West Side Story. It also helps that Rita Moreno won this category for playing the same role, even if the characters have different names. Judi Dench is fine in Belfast but she basically is just being a pleasant grandmother. Kirsten Dunst is the type of actress who has been around forever without ever taking home one of these things so I wouldn’t rule her out. She also did arguably the most “acting” in The Power of the Dog. I had to look up Aunjanue Ellis to see who she played in King Richard which would tell you everything you need to know about how forgettable her performance was. Jessie Buckley is a fine actress who might win one of these trophies some day, but The Lost Daughter was such an insufferable slog that I’m rooting against her on principle.
Best Actor
This is the category I crossed off first this year, and I know everyone out there is thrilled to be given that knowledge. So fun little Oscar trivia, because you know I wouldn’t let people enter an Oscar party without a useless factoid to drop. 2001 was the first year that two black actors were nominated for best actor. Those two actors were Denzel Washington and Will Smith. Denzel took his home for Training Day, and Will Smith famously was out of the theater before the award was even handed out. Exactly twenty years later they are going up against each other and this time Will Smith seems to be in the “he’s due” side of things and Denzel is on team “happy to be nominated”. I will say I infinitely preferred Joel Coen’s Tragedy of Macbeth to King Richard, but this feels like Will Smith’s award to lose. That said I was 100% certain Chadwick Boseman was getting a posthumous award last year, so I’ve been wrong before. Javier Bardem and Andrew Garfield also seem to be riding the nice to be nominated wave, even though both are great. Garfield is proving himself the best of the Spider Man actors, even if he might have been the worst of the Spider Men. Benedict Cumberbatch is Smith’s toughest competition, and I honestly think he should win, but politics play a larger role than the strength of the performance.
Best Actress
I now present to you the weakest category in this year’s awards. It seems mathematically impossible for there to be 10 best picture nominees and zero overlap between that category and best actress. So anyone wondering what film might sweep every major category like It Happened One Night, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, and Silence of the Lambs will have to wait at least another year. That isn’t saying the individual performances are bad, it’s just that the films they were attached to left something to be desired. I will say as of this writing I did not get to see Parallel Mothers so will not speak on Penelope Cruz’s performance. Olivia Coleman plays one of the worst people I’ve seen in a movie in The Lost Daughter and I genuinely hated the film. Nicole Kidman does a fine job even if she is at least a decade too old for the role. Kidman has proven herself one of her generation’s greatest actresses and this could definitely be another win for her, but she’s done better. Then again The Hours was far from her best work. Nothing would make me happier than Kristen Stewart winning, just to watch people’s heads explode. She also happens to be excellent in Spencer even if I’m one of 20 people who actually watched the movie. That leaves us with my default pick, Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. This film didn’t need to be made, and it didn’t particularly enrich my life in any way. That said Chastain is absolutely amazing in it. She truly disappears in the role, becoming unrecognizable and utterly committed. It possibly was the best performance of the year, and Renee Zellwegger proved two years ago that you can win this category playing a real person even if the movie is lousy.
Best Director
It isn’t a requirement that the best picture winner is nominated for best director, but well the numbers back it up. In other words these five films are the real contenders for best picture. Spielberg’s two trophies in this category make this seem a little more honorary than usual. His last nomination in this category was for Lincoln, so he’s not quite in Meryl Streep (or Diane Warren for that matter”) company, but close. Paul Thomas Anderson has certainly proved he deserves one of these, but despite how much I loved Licorice Pizza he still feels like a long shot. Kenneth Branagh has the benefit of working with black and white which worked as recently as 2018’s Roma for Cuaron. Ryuske Hamaguchi can join many other foreign directors who earned somewhat surprise nominations with no actual momentum. Spielberg won his first best director Academy Award for Schindler’s List beating out among others Jane Campion. This time I think Campion gets her 28 year revenge. There is apparently some drama surrounding her personally but if it didn’t stop Roman Polanski from winning I think she has it.
Best Picture
Belfast- This film and CODA I believe were the only best picture nominees under two hours, so thank you Mr. Branagh for that. There is something familiar about many of this year’s best picture nominees, including the fact that THREE of them are remakes, but even the original pictures seem to hit all the notes you would expect. A coming-of-age story set against turbulent real world events is not a new trope, but this film just made me miss Thomasin McKenzie in Jojo Rabbit. Probably didn’t help that she looks a bit like Lara McDonnell who plays Moira in this. I also couldn’t help but be reminded what a piece of shit Van Morrison is these days with his music all over the film.
CODA - There is usually a spot reserved when breaking down these films every year for me discussing how fast they will fade out of memory. CODA felt like it would be an insufferable slog when it started but seemed to settle into another coming-of-age story and about the only best picture nominee whose main protagonist is a female. CODA has about he same chance of winning best picture as the Detroit Lions winning the Super Bowl. If you have Apple TV, The Tragedy of Macbeth is definitely the better film, but get your money’s worth and watch this too.
Don’t Look Up - As someone who likes Adam McKay’s films, even going so far as to name The Big Short my favorite film of 2015, this movie can eat my ass. There are some movies that let the audience fill in some blanks, draw their own conclusions, and then there’s this. An all-star film that seems like the kind of thing Republican politicians will use to convince people Hollywood is all a bunch of out of touch liberals who think they’re idiots. I don’t mean to get into politics here, but this movie is as subtle as a Michael Moore documentary and nowhere near as entertaining or informative. It’s hard not to view it as insulting to the audience’s intelligence. Entertaining at times, there is no universe in which this should have even been considered for best picture.
Drive My Car - We have no reached the “Dave’s a pretentious film snob” part of the nominees. Here is where I mention how this is truly the best film of the year and point to an army of critics who agree. I had every intention of seeing Hamaguchi’s film before the nominations were announced, and still need to see his equally praised Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy which also came out last year. I would like to think in a post-Parasite world this actually has a chance, but if I’m being honest I don’t see it winning. It is too leisurely paced, too philosophical, and there’s not enough action and bloodshed to really capture the anti-subtitle crowd. As long as it’s on HBO Max though please watch it, It’s better than at least 9 other best picture nominees.
Dune - The first of the remakes on this year’s ballot. I know it’s brilliant, or it’s shit, or I’m an idiot because I didn’t read every book, or Lynch’s version is a corny mess, or it’s a brilliant misunderstood masterpiece, or I need to see the mini-series, or that also sucks. I was honestly exhausted by this film before it came out, which may have had something to do with the fact that it was delayed a year only to be released on streaming. More realistically it’s because science fiction nerds are the worst, even if I kind of am one. My faults with the film are somewhat understandable, it is half a movie. It ends at such a non-climax that it feels frustrating. Not to say I need closure, Antonioni taught me that, it just felt like a pilot episode of a show. I’m intrigued to watch another episode but I can’t make up my mind if I actually like the show. I can’t fathom how Hans Zimmer’s score for this is also nominated for an Oscar, it was as obtrusive as the Wonder Woman theme from the Snyder Cut of Justice League. I feel often that there’s at least one best original score nominee that honors whatever the loudest score was. This year it’s Dune. It’s well made and all but I’ll hold off my final judgement until the rest of it gets made, if such a time arrives.
King Richard - I’m embarrassed to say this was the only best picture nominee I had seen before the nominations came out. I understand Will Smith REALLY wants to in an Oscar, and this is his shot, but to nominate the film in any other category is a joke. Narrative films need one thing, conflict, and when you know that these two girls go on to be the best female tennis players ever all the drama is gone. Then you just get frustrated watching his character be a stubborn and insufferable helicopter parent. It also seems kinda insulting to make a movie about the origins of two of the most famous female athletes of all time and give all the credit to their father.
Licorice Pizza - Despite trying to see this on Christmas, I didn’t actually see it until 24 hours before the Oscar telecast. As much as I love Paul Thomas Anderson’s work, it usually takes a second viewing to appreciate what he was doing. Licorice Pizza just made me happy in a way none of his films really do. They’re always something of a bummer, but this was just a delight. Sure it’s another slice of life in the valley in the 70s, but this couldn’t feel more departed from Boogie Nights or Inherent Vice. The cast is all wonderful, I particularly loved John C. Reilly playing Herman Munster for two seconds. I feel for the actors though who had to do sooooo much running. If I were ranking the nominees this would probably be my third favorite, but I have no confidence in it winning. Anderson will most likely have his day, but it’s going to take something a little more ambitious.
Nightmare Alley - Another remake, and another film with Bradley Cooper, and another movie featuring Cate Blanchett? Nightmare Alley seems to check off every box for a nominee in 2021. It’s been years since I saw Edmond Goulding’s 1947 adaptation, but it’s inclusion in Cult Movies 2 makes it hold a special place in my heart. There is nothing significant added plot wise despite being 20 minutes longer than the original. Like Dune, and West Side Story for that matter the movie is good, and if you want to ignore the original it’s certainly worth a watch. I don’t think anyone thought The Shape of Water would win best picture so maybe Nightmare Alley has some shot.
The Power of the Dog - This is the best picture of the year, or at least the best one nominated for best picture. Fight me, or don’t but this is what should win. I’ve discussed some elements of it in the other categories, but it seems impossible that Netflix released this AND Don’t Look Up in the same year. The Power of the Dog seems like the antithesis to McKay’s film. Everything seems understated, brewing under the surface, and alluded to. It’s not like it’s some open-ended puzzle, all the pieces are there, we’re just not spoon fed everything. In the way McKay’s film insults it’s audience by ramming it’s social commentary down it’s throat, this is infinitely more rewarding. Campion has had some ups-and-downs over the last couple of decades, but this might be her masterpiece.
West Side Story - When I heard Spielberg was remaking West Side Story I thought “why”. Then it got delayed a year because old boomer man wanted his movie in theaters. I somewhat resented him for using his talents on this remake, but honestly the movie is pretty damn good. It’s been a century since I watched the original, but hey at least his leads seem to be the right ethnicity. The flaw of most remakes is why? Now it’s been 50 years since the original so if you can’t remake a movie after 5 decades then when can you? I did like this more than some of his recent offerings like Bridge of Spies and The Post but like Tragedy of Macbeth I feel like a an often told story can only be so good.
Enjoy the show and feel free to come back here to see how I did.
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