So this might be the earliest I’ve ever done an Oscar preview, but that’s because this is the earliest the Academy Awards have ever been held (at least in my memory). A week after the Super Bowl once upon a time used to be when the completely pointless Pro Bowl was held, now we get the grand daddy of all award shows. Luckily I came prepared, so let’s get cracking on the what, why, who, and mostly wrong predictions.
In 2005, Hustle and Flow and North Country kept me from my lofty goal of having seen every best picture, actor, actress, director nominee before the nominees were announced. After scouring numerous prediction posts, other award shows, etc. I thought I was in good shape this time around. Well I never made it to the theater in time to see 1917, then was moderately surprised when Cynthia Erivo scored a nod for the very poorly received Harriet. Once again my grand ambitions to see all the short films has failed, so look forward to blindly guessing on those categories. Anyways the categories.
Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet. It’s hard to knock this nomination because of how very white the Oscars are this year. Yet once again Hollywood is reminding us that they love black people as long as they play slaves, housemaids, or some other form of servant. Kasi Lemmon’s film is not good by any statistical measure. Like many other people I thought of 30 Rock and Tracey Jordan’s failed Harriet Tubman biopic with a hilariously difficult Octavia Spencer. I would have probably much rather enjoyed that trainwreck. Every year though there seems to be some poorly received film about slavery that’s meant to remind people that it was bad in case we forget. Erivo is fine in the role, but frankly Awkwafina was robbed on The Farewell, which could have made history of it’s own for a much better film. Lupita Nyong'o would have also been a better choice, but I guess her dual role wasn't enough of a slave.
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story. Big year for Scar-Jo. She starred in the biggest film of all time (End Game) then scored herself two nominations for Oscars. Marriage Story was my favorite film of the year and she was a big reason why. As far as the quality of the film’s featuring best actress nominees, this is uncontested as the best. A few times before we’ve seen actors and actresses nominated more than once, usually winning neither. This might turn out to be more of a happy for the nomination moment.
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women. A fine performance. Most of the cast is quite excellent here, and Ronan has gotten a handful of nominations before. I’m not hearing a ton of buzz for her actually winning, but the Academy can and probably will do worse.
Charlize Theron - Bombshell. Well the award for best performance in a mediocre film probably goes to Theron. She’s great, and in fact nearly everyone is great in this film. I would say I liked Bombshell but somehow this film was less than the sum of it’s parts. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what made it fall flat, but nearly all the individual elements were excellent. The trio of Theron, Robbie, and Kidman were excellent. Fat John Lithgow also deserved a nomination in the very crowded supporting actor field. Theron has consistently proven herself one of the absolute best and arguably the most versatile actresses of her generation.
Renee Zellwegger - Judy. The star of Texas Chainsaw Massacre the Next Generation is back. After years of relative obscurity Zellwegger is here to remind us all that she can in fact act. This is the type of comeback performance that usually warms Academy voters hearts. The problem is this movie was a catastrophic bore. I groaned loudly when she collapses on stage and those two old gay guys start singing. This hits all the notes of troubled biopic, let’s mimic a famous troubled person, etc. The film itself was pointless and boring, through no fault of Miss Zellwegger of course but bah this will probably win because no one has any vision.
Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory. Well there are no shortage of deserving actors this year. I somewhat regret sitting through Rocketman because I thought Egerton was going to be recognized. Having seen Pain and Glory I was hoping Banderas would get some love. He’s been a regular of Almodovar for over 30 years, so fitting he gets a nod for essentially playing Almodovar. The film itself is his best in years and much of it is because of it’s lead. I can envision no scenario where this might actually win, but it’s certainly worth seeing.
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time In…Hollywood. I earned some new-found respect for DiCaprio when I found out he’s an avid action figure collector. The old narrative of the Academy hating Leo is pretty much gone after he finally won for The Revenant. With that trophy though it’s hard to see him capturing another for his turn as Rick Dalton. You can usually count on solid acting in a Tarantino film and this is no exception.
Adam Driver - Marriage Story. In most year’s I’d say this would be a clear front-runner. Driver is very well liked in the industry and he’s riding a Jennifer Lawrence in 2012 wave of good will. It also happens he delivered the year’s best performance in the year’s best film. I know a surprising number of people still haven’t bothered to get around to this film, but come on it’s on Netflix, just put it on and enjoy.
Jaoquin Phoenix - Joker. Phoenix is trying to do something only Robert DeNiro has done, and that’s win an Oscar for a role someone else already won an Oscar for. After re-watching The Master recently I could say Phoenix is trying to win an Oscar for a role he probably should have already won one for. Look I thought the Joker movie was amateurish hogwash as a film, but Phoenix is damn good. It’s that perfect showy role that gets people excited. It looks like a great performance, it passes the eye test, and you’re convinced you’re watching someone emote. Considering he received his first nomination nearly 20 years ago for Gladiator, this might be the time he finally gets one of those gold statues. I wouldn’t be mad about it, but he wouldn’t have been my first choice.
Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes. This was the other surprise-kinda for the best actor nominees. Pryce did get a Golden Globe nomination but I was not picking him to get represented over DeNiro or others. Now if I had my way Eddie Murphy or Willem Dafoe would have taken the final spot for Dolomite is My Name and The Lighthouse, but it’s hard to argue with the High Sparrow getting recognized. He’s damn good as Pope Francis, and he is solid enough to convince you he’s an old man from Argentina rather than an old British actor. The film itself is one of those solid also-rans that no one will be talking of in a year, but Pryce and Hopkins carry the film.
Best Supporting Actress:
I didn’t see Richard Jewell so I can’t speak on Kathy Bates performance. Despite a relatively strong field here (stronger than the lead actress nominees), I’d have to make Laura Dern my pick. She’s been consistently great for years and like Gary Oldman before her, never seemed to get 1/10th of the recognition deserved. This seems like her time to shine.
Best Supporting Actor:
The blind-spot in this category is Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. A film I’ve missed despite being a huge fan of Heller’s earlier Diary of a Teenage Girl. My thoughts are not enough people saw The Two Popes, and Pesci/Pacino will cancel each other out. Time for long-time A-lister Brad Pitt to get his lifetime achievement award. Tarantino does have a habit of getting people supporting actor/actress Oscars so I expect that trend to continue.
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman. The great one is nominated again. When The Irishman first came out it seemed like a strong contender to get Marty his second best directing Oscar. This is everything he’s done great, and the film itself was well received and stood out without any clear front-runner. In the months since, more and more people have bitched and moaned about the digital de-aging so I’d say he’s fighting some uphill battle. Few directors could make a 200+ minute movie flow so breezily and keep your interest. He’s more than proven himself the greatest living director, but I don’t particularly love his chances here.
Todd Phillips - The Joker. Well if the director of Talladega Nights can get an Oscar nomination why not the director of Old School? Phillips is largely a hack who likes to bitch and moan that you can’t call people “Dr. Faggot” in movies anymore because we’re too PC. So he’s going to make Baby’s First Taxi Driver, and try and prove he’s some serious artist with a teenager’s concept of social justice and anarchy. The first half of Joker is a god damn chore to sit through, and the last act which actually is quite good isn’t enough to make me forget how amateurish and inept most of what precedes it is.
Sam Mendes - 1917. Sam Mendes won a best director Oscar for his very first film, American Beauty. That was shockingly 20 years ago because we’re all getting old and time slows for no man. It might have seemed like his career peaked very early, but here’s 1917 this year’s answer to the question “What if you combined Birdman and Dunkirk, but set it in World War I?” He seems like a safe choice here because there is enough technical stuff to make him a winner. Keep in mind the Academy members don’t always vote on their favorite film, or even what they think is the best, mainly what they think best represents their industry. That gives Mendes a strong chance to win his second best directing statue. Still wish he was doing the next Bond film though.
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time In…Hollywood. As I’ve stated many times throughout this blog, I am one hell of a fan of QT. Despite taking home a best screenplay Oscar or two (or three, I honestly don’t remember), he’s never directed a best picture winner or won a best director award. So it stands to reason that his boring, meandering, weakest feature since Death Proof would be the one that might actually get him that trophy. The Academy does love movies set in or based in Hollywood, and I’d be amazed if this doesn’t at least get a Production Design Oscar. As far as a job directing, this movie needed some serious trimming. It’s all set up with nearly no payoff.
Bong Joon Ho - Parasite. The Academy has never given a foreign language film a best picture Oscar, The Artist was the closest thing and we all remember that being silent. They are a little less allergic to giving a best directing Oscar to a foreign language film, as evident by Alfonso Cauron winning last year for Roma. Bong Joon Ho might see a similar consolation prize this year for what has been by far the most universally acclaimed film of the year. I will be rooting for him, but we’ll see how things shake out.
Best Picture:
Ford v Ferrari. Hey remember Atonement, Seabiscuit, Capote, The Queen, Frost/Nixon, etc? Yeah maybe you do, chances are you forgot every one of those movies existed until just this second. James Mangold’s newest film fits directly into that category. Mangold is a fine director who has helmed a few forgettable yet competent movies (Girl, Interrupted, Walk the Line) and this is no different. I enjoyed it, it was well made, entertaining, and I will never think about it again for the rest of my life.
The Irishman. One of the three best picture nominees that made my top 10 list this year. Scorsese’s late-career masterpiece is nearly everything the greatest director alive does well. It is definitely the senior circuit which gives it a little more weight than many of his earlier films. A great film from start to finish. I for one choose not to let the technical limitations in the effects/makeup department distract me from how great the story/acting are.
Jojo Rabbit. This film seemed to scream future cult classic when it was released. A type of movie that would probably find it’s audience a few years down the line and prove to be one of those wacky flicks too original for it’s time. Shockingly enough it found it’s audience immediately. Taika Waititi is proving himself one of the best and most unique filmmakers working today. He shows just how you can make an original and compelling World War II film despite the fact that we really didn’t need another. So many great things about this Jojo, and unlike some of the other nominees, I do think this will still hold up years from now.
Joker. There are always polarizing films every year. Movies that people seem to really love and defend with the type of blind devotion typically reserved for politics, and then the people who shit on it with the type of fervor typically reserved for politics. I would say I probably dislike Joker for reasons other than some of the common ones mentioned (it is not some incel fantasy). As someone who has longed for the day when comic book movies were treated with the same respect as other movies, I can’t help but feel like this is just not what I want representing the genre. There are gems of a good film here, and moments that could have been effective in a more subtle director’s hands. What do I know, this movie made a billion dollars, and I’m probably the idiot.
Little Women. My two-word review: “It’s fine”. In all seriousness, this was a competent, well-made movie that at least tried to breathe some new life into that book you were assigned to read in high school English. The loosely non-linear story-telling style was a nice change of pace but I just don’t think the world needed this film. Greta Gerwig is proving herself an extremely capable director, in addition to a great screen-writer, so forgive me if I would prefer more original ideas. This will also wind up on the heap of forgotten Oscar bait in approximately three months. Would have rather seen Midsommar in this spot.
Marriage Story. The best film of the year is from Gerwig’s other half, Noah Baumbach, who turned his own divorce into a very, very great film. Perhaps my only complaint is that he didn’t even remotely try and disguise the fact that it was his own life he was filming, what a twist he’s a theater director instead of a movie director. That’s a minor complaint, the reason this does work is because it does feel real, presumably because it is. I’ve made the comparison to Woody Allen before and I think this shows the best of his serious style. Hard not to repeat myself after all the praise I’ve heaped on it.
1917. After watching this my thoughts were “I bet people who don’t know a ton about movies will be very impressed with this.” After checking it’s score on imdb the barometer for people who know nothing about film, my suspicions were confirmed. From someone who thinks All Quiet on the Western Front is the second greatest movie of all time, I certainly have nothing against the subject matter. The gimmick of 1917 however and the very loose plot didn’t really grab me. There are some spectacular moments, but I simply found myself not caring about what was happening. Not sure if a more traditional narrative would have helped it more or not. Again this might very well win so what do I know?
Once Upon a Time In…Hollywood. I’ve gone over this film a lot and there isn’t much more to add. It looks great, there are some wonderful details, but it’s all details. The entire sprawling 3+ hours of this is just Tarantino wallowing in crappy TV, spaghetti Westerns, period details, and revisionist history. The world is great, but far too little actually happens. If there was an award for best 3 minutes of screen time, Bruce Dern would get my vote though.
Parasite. Topping Film Comment’s list of the best films of the year, as well as getting a rare 5-star rating from allmovie.com Parasite is the film no one seems to have a negative thing to say about. I’ve heard speculation from some people that it does have a better chance than I might give it credit for, but until it wins I think it has no shot. I appreciated Bong’s speech at the Globes about overcoming the one-inch barrier at the bottom of the screen, and wish more people take heed. I would also argue that Parisite will hold up the most down the road as a certifiable masterpiece. This is what should win, but it will probably be content with an International Feature Film Oscar.
