Despite this being the earliest I saw all the major nominees, I have almost forgotten to write down my thoughts on the nominees. So consider this the only important Oscar preview you need to read, keeping it going for the 13th(?) consecutive year.
So I will add a few caveats to this preview and what I watched or didn’t watch. I am flying blind on the short films nominees (not uncommon). I also oddly haven’t caught any of the documentary nominees this year. I will probably eventually check out a few so don’t look here for the breakdown on the non-fiction side.
We should also take a moment to laugh because Diane Warren got another nomination for a film no one saw. I’m sure a couple people saw they were making a flaming hot Cheeto movie and thought “Yo”, but I would wager even if you did sit through it you probably didn’t remember there was an original song in it. Keep trying Diane, I’m sure they will jokingly nominate you next year for something else no one ever heard of. The funniest Oscar streak will continue. Dua Lipa deserved that nomination.
The International Film category seems strong this year. Io Capitano is the only nominee I didn’t get to see (I think it actually is playing at one screen but probably won’t catch it). I did not care for Society of the Snow but I seem to be in the minority with that one. Perfect Days was great even if there wasn’t much of a plot. Speaking of not much of a plot, Zone of Interest looks to continue the trend of winning this category if it has a best picture nomination. The Teacher’s Lounge was fine btw, I’m sure if you actually were a teacher it would hit a little harder.
Best Supporting Actress
I did not see The Color Purple because you can’t make me. Danielle Brooks I’m sure is great but I am definitely not the demographic for that movie and I don’t even like the Spielbergo version. Da’vine Joy Randolph has about a 500% chance of winning for The Holdovers so the others certainly seem to be in the happy to be nominated category. Good for Jodie Foster popping back up for another nomination. Beyond Randolph I don’t even know who has the second best chance of winning.
Best Supporting Actor
One of the rare categories that I had completed before the nominees were announced. I know I am incredible. Ryan Gosling may have garnered headlines for getting nominated while Margot Robbie was shut out. However he was damn entertaining and probably won’t win anyways. Robert DeNiro got another late career nomination at the tender age of 80. Sterling K Brown was great in American Fiction and had no business being that ripped. In a better world Mark Ruffalo would get the gold for his fantastic turn in Poor Things, but all conventional wisdom seems to point to RDJ. It is his Oscar to lose, and in a movie with a lot of men yelling in rooms, he certainly did yelling in rooms.
Best Actress
We should all be thankful to live in a world where Annette Benning can lose another Oscar. Nyad sure was exactly what you thought it was. Will anyone remember her performance or will they remember Robbie as Barbie? That isn’t a rhetorical question, there is an answer. It wouldn’t be the first time the Academy nominated a rarely seen performance that will never be discussed the week after the ceremony. Hell there are a few winners no one remembers. Did you know Alicia Vikander won an Oscar? Did you know it was for a film allegedly named The Danish Girl? I actually had to Google what she won for, and that was in 2016. Who can forget Youn Yuh-jung for Minari? Sorry sarcasm is hard to convey. I saw that movie and I didn’t even remember she won.
Anyways I keep discussing supporting actresses and there are plenty of performances that win the big one we forget about. Not necessarily bad performances but I’m sure the re-watch value is through the roof on films like Room, Still Alice, and Judy. This year however the award seems to be tailor made for Lily Gladstone. Not to say she doesn’t deserve it but the Academy members might pull a muscle patting themselves on the back that hard for honoring a native American performer. Trust me it will get mentioned *pause for applause* several times. I would love to see Emma Stone as a more legitimate competitor because god damn was she excellent in Poor Things. I hated everything about Maestro although Mulligan was good I guess. Sandra Huller appeared in two best picture nominees this year and it’s nice to see her recognized (although in a better world she would have been nominated/won for Toni Erdmann).
Best Actor
I can not stress enough how much I didn’t enjoy Maestro. Bradley Cooper in Jewface stole a nomination from Zac Efron (Iron Claw) or Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). No let us give the vanity project with a man talking like he has a cold for 2 hours more unnecessary recognition. We all liked him better when he was in The Hangover, but shockingly people still get fooled by being deliberately pandered to. Coleman Domingo joins Annette Benning in the most forgettable category. In fact so forgettable, I had to look up what the name of his movie was. It was Rustin, btw.
The Murphy, Giamatti, Wright trifecta are the nominees that I have the least issue with. Murphy seems like the front-runner. Not sure I agree but my opinion might not matter. Paul Giamatti is always great, and considering this role was written for him makes it all the more compelling case for how perfect he is in The Holdovers. Jeffrey Wright absolutely carries American Fiction and in a weaker year he would have a lot more buzz about his performance.
Best Director
Congratulations Christopher Nolan you will finally win one. Hard to see a path for victory from the other nominees, although Yorgos Lanthimos should absolutely run away with this. It’s a classic film bro battle, but the Academy loves a narrative. There are many actors and directors who win not necessarily for the movie they are nominated for but the films they made in the past. Did anyone think Paul Newman deserved one for The Color of Money? No but he did deserve one. Like Scorsese with the Departed though this does feel like the best chance Nolan might have. The movie was a hit, critically and commercially, so following Tenet it feels like more of a triumph.
Justine Triet gets this year’s “hey we nominated a woman” slot, which left many people up in arms about Gerwig’s snub. For the record I liked Barbie a lot more than Anatomy of a Fall, but I also didn’t vote. Jonathan Glazer picks up his first directing nomination for Zone of Interest, which has proven to be more critically successful than I would have guessed. I generally don’t love any Glazer films but I usually at least admire his style. Some people aren’t counting out Scorsese and this feels a little like Spielberg’s nomination last year. However I think it’s still Nolan with Lanthimos as an upset pick.
Best Picture
American Fiction: So fun story about American Fiction. This is the first and to date only time in my life I have been the only person in a movie screening. I’ve come close, but someone always saunters in to interrupt my solitude. American Fiction however was mine all mine. So not having any audience my reaction wasn’t affected at all by those around me or boomers making comments (seriously the worst demographic in theaters). The “ending” made me literally laugh out loud and even had me looking around the theater to see if anyone was joining me. The satire of the film is about as subtle as South Park, but I also happen to be a big fan of South Park.
Anatomy of a Fall: I did not catch this in theaters and instead relied on good old fashioned streaming. In fact along with Maestro it was the only one of the best picture nominees I saw on the small screen. Not sure what impact this might have had in a theater but my overall impression was “it was fine”. Sure it’s better than average but I struggled to get engrossed in any of the things happening.
Barbie: In the battle of Barbenheimer, I chose Barbie. I won’t say it was perfect and Will Ferrell being Will Ferrell seemed out of place. However the production design was fantastic, the music was all great and it was god damn delightful. Of course Hollywood will take all the wrong lessons from this and give us more insipid toy adaptations instead of playing to the Taylor Swift demographic (which coincidentally happens to be probably the largest demographic). Shamelessly commercial but with enough self awareness to work. Can you imagine a world where a GI Joe movie or Transformers could get a best picture nomination?
The Holdovers: I’ve been a big Alexander Payne fan since Election and let me tell you this was pretty damn excellent. If it weren’t for the boomers talking through the entire film (I even yelled at them), I might have enjoyed it even more. I already talked about the performers who will win (Rudolph) and who should (Giamatti). The Holdovers probably doesn’t have a great shot of actually winning best picture, but I was certainly wrong about CODA.
Killers of the Flower Moon: The greatest living director is back with another epic at long last uniting his two favorite leading men. Like The Silence, Kundun, and Age of Innocence this definitely was a film Scorsese really wanted to make. For what it’s worth I thought it was fine. I definitely felt every one of its 206 minutes. At times I thought this could have been better suited to a mini-series and by the end I barely remembered who any of the characters were. I seem to be in the minority here and I am the farthest thing possible from a Scorsese hater, this one just didn’t click for me.
Maestro: This movie can eat shit.
Oppenheimer: At a certain point certain directors tend to veer into self parody. Their films seem to check off so many textbook things that you wonder if there is any self awareness. 2023 saw a couple of these, most notably Wes Anderson’s Astroid City and Nolan’s Oppenheimer. I preferred the Anderson film if you must know but I can hear the film bros screaming at me what a fucking idiot I am. Not unlike Kenji Fukasaku in the 70s I’m not sure if Nolan can help himself. He needs to have a nonstop dramatic score for 3 straight hours. He needs to have characters say things that make his director seem smart. We absolutely need to jump around in time to ratchet up tension. There are moments when this movie is truly spectacular but I think ultimately you gotta ask how much you like Nolan and his style. Anyways it’s going to win.
Past Lives: Three movies directed by women nominated for best picture? Time to cancel the Oscars this shit is too woke. Of those three films Past Lives makes a very fantastic understated case for being the best of them. Credit to Honest Trailers calling this the perfect Gen Z love story, it happens almost entirely online, and there’s no actual intimacy. I loved the set up and this is the type of film that can start triggering false memories. Did the potential love of your life move away when you were children and should you/could you reconnect with them? Past Lives is probably the most grounded of the nominees and deserves a wider audience.
Poor Things: Dave what was your favorite movie of 2023? Glad you asked, it was Poor Things. I generally hate previews but from the time I saw Willem Dafoe’s fucked up face and Yorgos Lanthimos’s name I knew I was going to love this. Every scene, every shot, every line, just perfect start to finish. I have been a Lanthimos fan since Dogtooth and sure this movie isn’t as financially successful as Anyone But You, but it represents a great leap forward for him and filmmaking in general. As we have moved more and more into franchises, perhaps one of our few remaining bright spots in cinema is giving visionary directors a bunch of money to make some damn art.
The Zone of Interest: I will be honest, I’m not big on Jonathan Glazer. Each of his previous films have either bored me or made me deeply uncomfortable. Even a revisit to Under the Skin failed to convince me it was a masterpiece. However I do admire what he does even if it doesn’t click with me. So I went into this with low expectations and came away impressed. The balls on this guy to make a holocaust movie with no Jews is quite a gamble. Almost the entirety of the film is a banal existence set against the backdrop of an atrocity. The sound design has deservedly been praised and really helps to undercut the lack of drama in the foreground. There was a telling line late when Rudolph Hoss is talking to his wife about the party and she asks who was there. He responds “I didn’t pay attention, I was too busy thinking about how I would gas everyone, the high ceilings would be a challenge.” This one line reminded me of Juraj Herz’s The Cremator and that alone is a compliment.
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