A slight deversion - about baseball

Well I know that it is a film blog, but well those of you who know me are aware that I'm about as obsessed with baseball as a person can be. As against tradition as it might be, baseball is starting on a Thursday with not one but three games, and well a few things I'd like to jot down before opening day.

Last Saturday I watched Major League for what might be the 40th time. It's become something of a tradition, similar to many people watching Christmas Story or It's a Wonderful Life before the holidays. Every time I watch it I seem to catch more. The product placement of Tecate on Jake Taylor's shirt when he arrives at Spring Training. There's the background player with a mullet who walks past Roger Dorn on two different shots (bad continuity Mr. Ward), and other such nitpicking items that only a billion viewings can reveal.

Major League might be my favorite sports film ever (wait it clearly is far and away my favorite sports film ever) but it does fall into a few cliches. For starters virtually every sports film from Rocky to The Fighter it is about an underdog. The Indians are purposely bad and anyone whose gone into opening day with a roster full of ?'s then they can feel the pain of the citizens of Cleveland at the beginning of the film. Perhaps if the film were remade the Pittsburgh Pirates might provide a suitable backdrop considering they're working on 19 straight losing seasons and nothing is letting me think that's going to change this year.

There is also the forced love story between Corbin Bernsen and Rene Russo. Russo made a career for herself in the late 80s and early 90s dragging down nearly any film she was in by being thrown into a half cocked and unconvincing love affair with someone just so that Hollywood could fulfill it's unofficial quota of appealing to women who clearly are only going to the film for that same reason (Kitty Carlisle in A Night at the Opera anyone?). Her role here is much more fleshed out that the supremely clumsy part she plays in Wolfgang Petersen's In the Line of Fire with an aged Clint Eastwood who is far too old for such nonsense. I won't blame her presence on the decline of the increasingly silly Lethal Weapon franchise, but let's face it she's no Patsy Kensit.

Not to beat up on the girl too much, but clearly the scenes she shows up in do grind the film down a lot, even with the faux-romantic score changing. The scene at the library provides plenty of comedy thanks to the quick pace and ever ready steadi-cam tracking a rather rapid fire exchange. The scene where he crashes the fiance's party was one I actually used to fast forward when I was a kid, and at the very least we could have gotten some nudity to spice up their "one last time" fling. Unlike the largely reprehensible sequels to this film, the first was at least rated R, which I know is a novelty in Hollywood to think that an R rated film can actually have an audience, make money and spawn a sequel without being a shitty slasher film. There was a time in the 80s when people in Hollywood actually seemed to give their audience some credit, hell even a children's film like Who Framed Roger Rabbit? had a little profanity, some sex appeal, and some casualties. But I digress and won't start shouting from my "They don't make 'em like they used to" pedestal quite yet.

For quotable dialogue and arguably the the best representation of life in the big leagues few people will point to a better film than Major League to the point where I'm not even sure what a possible number 2 would be. The vicarious joys of having the Indians defeat the evil Yankees in a one-game playoff would suffice for a few years, but in 1995 and 1997 the Indians would make it all the way to the world series before the unfortunate fate of all Cleveland sports teams befell them. Still game 7 of a world series would be a hell of an improvement for Cubs fans who haven't even appeared in the fall classic since 1945 (which is three years before the last Indians championship). For the record the Indians have the second longest active world series drought, so goes to show you how sad the life of a Cubs fan can be.

On that note let's get to some non-film related baseball predictions. I'm wrapping up my 2000s list and should have it posted tomorrow, perhaps while watching the three televised games on ESPN.

AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Rays
3. Yankees
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

Well this may shock you a bit. I despise the Red Sox (and Yankees for that matter) perhaps more than any sports franchise in the country. Yet hard to deny how souped up their lineup is. True I don't have a lot of faith that Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka will have bounce back seasons, and I'm convinced that Bobby Jenks will be an overweight trainwreck setting up Papelbon, but that lineup can easily drive in a billion runs this year. I believe that the Yankees will keep it interesting and although the loss of Pettite is huge, they're the type of team that will make a move if necessary at the deadline. Tampa Bay is a bit of a dark horse and lord only knows how they'll play without Pena, Crawford, Garza, and Soriano. However few teams have deeper farm systems and as the steroid-less Yankees and Red Sox keep getting older the Rays may just sneak past both of them. The Buck Showalter era seems promising in Baltimore, and the addition of Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee should help out their lineup, but I'd be amazed if they won 80 games. Toronto seems like they've finally given into the idea of rebuilding after years of being half-in half-out, so I expect them to be bad, and someone has to be in last place. As always I'm picking the wild card out of this division.

AL Central

1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Royals
5. Indians

There are only so many times that the White Sox can lose to the Twins before things change. While the Sox have made another step forward with the addition of Adam Dunn and arguably the best bullpen in the league, the Twins have stood by re-signing Thome and Pavano and failing to make that big acquisition. Granted the Twins find a way to win from mid-July to September, yet comically fail as soon as the playoffs start, I think their run may be ending. They'll give the Sox a ton of problems as they always do, but providing the White Sox can stay healthy they should win this division and make a run in the post season. The Tigers did get Victor Martinez but that team still seems to be missing a few major pieces, but again if healthy (or if the Twins and Sox are facing serious injuries) they might surprise a few people. The Royals are campaigning for the position of the AL Pirates, trading their best pitcher this off season. They may have 8 of the top 50 ranked prospects but I've seen more than my share of highly touted prospects fail miserably so I think the best the Royals can do is not finish dead last. That spot is reserved for the Indians who have awful attendance, an often hurt lineup (even their golden catching prospect Carlos Santana will start the season on the DL), and a questionable rotation. I'm not picking good things for the Indians, and it might be a very dark time for Cleveland sports for the next couple of years, but with a new manager and a new outlook perhaps they can start to make progress.

AL West

1. A's
2. Rangers
3. Angels
4. Mariners

I've been burned by this prediction far too often, and up until today I wouldn't have gone so far as to predict the A's to win the division. The Rangers are the defending champions, but losing Cliff Lee and essentially replacing him with injury plagued Brandon Webb is not a fair trade. Adrian Beltre is a prototypical player who mysteriously is at his best in a contract year. His numbers last year for Boston were significantly better than expected and I expect a drop off. However in a hitter's paradise like Texas he may do just fine. The A's on the other hand have a great rotation, excellent bullpen, play great defense, and should have just enough offense to finally get back to the post season. The Angels are easily as good as these two teams but with the continued saga of Kendry Morales' injury and a few other question marks I'm not sure they can quite make it. I wouldn't be surprised if all three teams finish with a winning record. The Mariners are garbage and I'd be amazed if they lost fewer than 100 games this year.

NL East

1. Braves
2. Phillies
3. Marlins
4. Nationals
5. Mets

Now to the National League. Everyone's eyes are on the Phillies, and I mean everyone. Their supremely touted rotation is getting comparisons to the 90s Braves staff and everyone seems to be penciling them in for a world series appearance or at the very least a division. If this sounds familiar it's because we saw it last summer with the Miami Heat and there was a team that clearly had its problems living up to the hype. With the decline of Rollins, Howard, Ibanez, and the injury to Utley as well as the departure of Werth this lineup isn't nearly as imposing. Their bullpen is suspect and their farm system all but depleted. Yes Roy Halladay will be great, Cliff Lee may win 20 games, but they're far from a lock. The Braves on the other hand have a great rotation, one of the leagues best farm systems, and have made a wonderful addition with Dan Uggla at second base. They might not have the glamor of the Phillies but they're on par with talent and other than Derek Lowe and Chipper Jones far younger. The Marlins are the perennial "wait and see" team. They have some great pieces but have failed to put them together for the last several years. Any given year could be the year for them, but I can't see them passing the Braves or Phillies. The Nationals are definitely on their way up, the addition of Werth should lessen the blow of Adam Dunn's departure, but clearly their eyes are on the future, and their two number one picks who should be helping the team out in the second half. The Mets on the other hand could very well be the most dysfunctional and worst team in baseball right now. Hard to imagine this team was a serious contender just a couple seasons ago. Nearly every one of their one time all stars are hurt including ace pitcher Johan Santana, and their lineup is comprised of a host of triple-A players no one's ever heard of (Cubs fans remember Angel Pagan?). It's a disastrous soap opera and with ownership issues and massive financial trouble this could be a seriously ugly year for the team from Queens. Just go ahead an celebrate the 25 year anniversary of your Miracle Mets and pray next year isn't as bleak, but don't ask me to feel sorry for you.

AL Central
1. Cardinals
2. Cubs
3. Brewers
4. Reds
5. Astros
6. Priates

Yeah that's right I'm picking the Cardinals. Injuries or not, if anyone can weather the storm of losing one of the three best pitchers in the National League it's the Cardinals. Dave Duncan is a wizard whose made a career getting pitchers to over achieve and someone will step up to fill Adam Wainwright's vacancy. The Pujols contract talks will be an issue but probably not for the most consistent power hitter in baseball history. I would have picked the Brewers to win, but the fact that both their off season pitching acquisitions (Marcum and Greinke) are starting the season on the DL has me slightly worried. They can hit the hell out of the ball and with a potential rotation of Greinke, Gillardo, Marcum, and Wolff they could be outstanding, especially with the issues with other teams, but well they're one of those injured teams. The Cubs are a huge question mark but have enough solid pieces to make a decent run if some of their players can rebound from a dismal 2009-2010. It'll take a long time to see just how they'll shape up, but their rotation should be solid (provided Zambrano doesn't self destruct a huge if), their bullpen should be remarkably better with Wood back in their, and after years and years they finally have their power hitting left hander with Pena. I imagine a fun an interesting season on the North Side and if Quade is anything like the Cubs last two managers, then they'll win the division, we'll see. Speaking of former Cubs managers, I have no faith at all in the Reds abilities to repeat. They had good years from nearly everyone, but now that all those young players have gotten paid I wonder if they'll be able to repeat their performances. Dusty Baker has a wonderful capacity to destroy young pitchers and there's already evidence of that this season. They won't be bad, but can't see them winning the division again, the Brewers and Cubs made too many improvements. The Astros are in transition and are probably more concerned with finding out what they have rather than making a serious run. And well poor Pirates, Jesus that streak won't end this year.

NL West
1. Rockies
2. Giants
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks

The Rockies have been jilted the last season and are not quickly to forgive the Giants their recent success. With Gonzalez and Tulowitzki locked up they should be as good if not better than last year, and well someone has to win the division. The Giants may have a bit of a sophomore slump, and it doesn't help that Brian Wilson will be starting the season on the DL. The Dodgers should be interesting with first year manager Don "I thought I told you trim those sideburns" Mattingly, and still have a few great young players. With their ownership situation of recent years I'm not sure how well they can add an impact player when needed. The NL West has been a tough division to win and with the surprising performance of the Padres last year the race has gotten even tighter. The Padres shocked me and most of the baseball world by winning 90 games last year when everyone (myself included) picked them to finish dead last. The departure of Gonzalez is huge, but their rotation and bullpen is still among the league's best, who knows. The D-Backs are that other team in transition, and I honestly don't know a single pitcher in their starting rotation (is Micah Owings still there?). That said I have no idea how this team will play and won't predict much.

So to recap

AL
Boston
Rays (wild card)
White Sox
Athletics

NL
Braves
Phillies (Wild Card)
Cardinals
Rockies