Hello folks and loyal reader(s). It is that time of year again, in fact holy shit the Oscars are tonight (unless you are retroactively reading this in which case, how did I do?). Whether you saw everything, nothing, or just watched hentai inspired by Zootopia 2 I will try to catch you up to speed. Jesus I haven't written a blog for this site since the last Oscars, whoops.
So since I put this off until the last possible second, we will make it brief and give you hopefully a bathroom visit’s worth of reading. Unlike last year I did not watch any of the nominated shorts, so your best bet to what might win is to see what’s on Netflix and go with that because half the Academy members don’t even watch these either. I also failed spectacularly on the documentary feature category as well. Come See Me in the Good Light I watched last night and it sure was a bummer but I have no informed opinion on whether it will win.
The animated feature category I was late to but thanks to the magic of streaming services I did watch K-Pop Demon Hunters, Elio, and the aforementioned Zootopia 2. Of these three I wish we had something good to root for, but I’ll go with the enormously popular K-Pop. Look I get it, you probably saw it and thought it was AMAZING. I don’t care for polished boy band garbage/K-pop music and frankly it needed more demon hunting. I wouldn’t be surprised if Little Amelie or Arco are the two sneaky animated features that are actually good but as of this writing, I haven’t seen either.
Typically the best International Feature is whatever is nominated for best picture. This year the race is essentially between Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. Both were very good films from directors who in my opinion made better work previously. In a just and perfect world It Was Just an Accident would win, and with the current situation in Iran I’m not sure if this got any sort of late push. Yes I know it is technically France’s submission but let’s not get technical. Sirat looks amazing and it is sitting on my Plex waiting to be watched, but that might be for another day. I know nothing about Tunisia’s nominee and it strikes me as the “happy to be nominated” selection. So gun to head I think Secret Agent wins, although Sentimental Value is a hair better. Jafar Panahi’s film is leagues above either though and frankly my favorite movie of 2025.
There’s a casting category now. Congratulations on Sinners picking up the inaugural award in this category. Ludwig Goransson is absolutely winning best original score and it won’t be close. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sinners also takes home cinematography and costume design. I don’t anticipate a clean sweep but I highly doubt it will be shut out.
Also get ready to laugh at Diane Warren losing again, this time for a fake movie that was a documentary about herself. It is my annual joke and it shockingly never gets old. “Golden” is winning best song and we all know that.
Now for the acting.
Best Supporting Actor
Early in the year I would have just handed the award to Sean Penn and called it a day. Perhaps Benicio Del Toro will syphon some votes. Pun intended but Stellan Skarsgard might be the sentimental favorite here and absolutely would deserve it. Jacob Elordi has no chance, sorry hunky monster fans. Delroy Lindo could be a sleeper pick as another sentimental favorite and the Academy has historically loved giving black people supporting Oscars. In summary, Skarsgard is my pick.
Best Supporting Actress
Another in the competing performances from the same movie conundrum. Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas were both great but may cancel each other out. Teyana Taylor was great but was largely upstaged by others in OBAA. Amy Madigan seems like a “wow someone was nominated from a horror film” type of nominee. Wunmi Mosaku is probably more of a happy to be nominated unless Sinners starts sweeping everything which is certainly possible. The fact that Taylor and Madigan won the Golden Globe and whatever the SAG awards are called now means flip a coin. I still didn’t see Weapons because I hated Barbarian, so I’ll go with Taylor.
Best Actor
Speaking of being desperate to win an Oscar, is this Timmy’s year? Maybe, but did you know Michael B. Jordan played 2 characters? That’s literally twice the acting and we know the Academy loves to award whoever did the most acting. If I had a vote I would give it to Ethan Hawke for the criminally underseen Blue Moon, but I don’t have a vote and he is definitely not a sexy pick. Leo and Wagner Moura are most likely going to watch someone else win this award. My money is on Jordan because I think it would be funny if Chalamet loses again.
Best Actress
Justice for Jennifer Lawrence. Die My Darling wasn’t what I would call “good” but god damn was Lawrence incredible. No instead Kate fucking Hudson got nominated for that bullshit Song Sung Blue. I think Chase Infiniti would have run away with a supporting actress award if she was submitted for that category but instead she is shut out here. I love Renate Reinsve and she should win a million Oscars but we all know this is between Rose Byrne and Jessie Buckley. We also know by saying it is between them is my way of saying Jessie Buckley is winning this.
Best Director
The pride of Oakland Ryan Coogler might get his statue tonight, but the narrative seems to indicate that it is Paul Thomas Anderson’s time. Turns out three other people are nominated for best director. We found out which Safdie brother is Joel and which one is Ethan this year. Joachim Trier is also nominated and hot damn that makes me happy but again zero chance. Chloe Zhao got one already and frankly the buzz around Hamnet seems rather non-existent. Perhaps people still haven’t forgiven her for Eternals.
Best Picture
Bugonia - This was nominated, good job. I enjoyed the film fine but it was no Poor Things. I did prefer it to Kinds of Kindness however. I hope Yorgos and Emma Stone never stop making weird shit, lord knows we need it.
F1 - Is this the CODA of 2026? God I hope not, I mean Top Gun racing was so fucking formulaic and long, but alas cars go fast so how the fuck was this up for best picture? Seriously was 2025 so bad for movies? As someone who doesn’t follow Formula 1 it did not make me care. Could see this winning some sound/editing/visual effects awards though.
Frankenstein - LMAO, what a piece of shit. That may be harsh but did the Academy owe someone at Netflix a favor? Like Midferatu in 2024 this did not justify it’s existence but it made me long for Robert Eggers unnecessary vampire remake. Who decided to make Dr. Frankenstein look like Michael Jackson in the “Smooth Criminal” video?
Hamnet - It was good, the type of depressing seriousness that might win awards in another year and immediately be forgotten about after. I legitimately cried in the theater, and then kinda cringed when Paul Mescal started dropping a soliloquy.
Marty Supreme - Fun if you like being stressed out. I couldn’t tell if all the escalating tensions were meant to be as funny as they were or if Josh Safdie really didn’t know when to stop. I don’t see this winning here but it was definitely better than The Smashing Machine.
One Battle After Another - I think this wins best picture. Sure I saw it on 70mm at the Music Box, which is where I saw Anora last year and clearly that is why it will win best picture. I believe the narrative that it is time for PTA and this could very well be his “sorry about There Will Be Blood” Oscar.
The Secret Agent - I wouldn’t say it is a Brazilian thing but man this movie took its sweet time getting to the point. Now I happened to enjoy that. I also saw this at the Music Box but the rules don’t apply since it was in the smaller screening room. This was one of those good films that may get more all time status appreciation from critics down the road. As for Oscar voters my bet is International feature or nothing.
Sentimental Value - Not going to lie to you, this was probably my most anticipated film of the year, along with Bi Gan’s Resurrection which I still haven’t seen. Worst Person in the World is the best film of the decade and it isn’t even close. Sentimental Value had an almost impossible task to live up to that and damn it came close. Perhaps a hair too long, which can apply to literally every single nominee in this category. Hopefully it doesn’t go home empty handed but it is absolutely not winning best picture.
Sinners - There is a history of earlier releases winning best picture including everyone’s favorite Crash. More recently Everything Everywhere All at Once came through. Sinners being massively popular does help it’s case. It is definitely the more popcorn friendly best picture nominee and wipes the floor with F1 in terms of mass appeal spectacle. I am of the opinion that the movie was heading for all timer status before it became a vampire movie. That said no way it made half as much money without that element so here we are. I have heard people yelling that this is the most overrated piece of shit in 2025 and also even more people saying it was the best movie of the year. I would fall somewhere in the middle. If anything is going to beat OBAA this would be it and it’s SAG victories certainly give it some momentum. Either way people are going to be pissed if it wins or loses and isn’t that what these awards are all about.
Train Dreams - Did you know this was nominated for best picture? It was and if I had my vote Nick Cave would win an Oscar for best song, but again I don’t have a vote. To be honest I really loved babies first Mallick and this was absolutely my kind of art film bullshit. So much so that I am kind of shocked it got nominated, this seems more like the little seen movie that I tell people to watch that no one heard of. Netflix must have put a ton of money into the campaign, but perhaps not as much as Frankenstein which is the closest thing to this year’s Emilia Perez.
Final pick: One Battle After Another
